-LRB- CNN -RRB- -- By now , we 're on the same page that Mitt Romney 's pick of Paul Ryan as his running mate contradicts a golden oldie of presidential election strategy -- run to the conservative -LRB- or liberal -RRB- base to win the nomination and then reposition toward the center to lure the more moderate independent swing voters who are necessary to win the general election .

Ryan may be many things -- energetic , charismatic and geeky -- but no one familiar with his Full Monty conservative budgets would describe his selection as remotely moving to the center . Just the opposite -- Romney has doubled down on his move to the right during the primary battle .

What gives ? Did the looming prospect of defeat push Romney into a desperate gamble ?

Give Romney some credit . He 's made a shrewd move .

The Ryan choice adopts a strategy premised on supermobilizing the base and luring a smidgeon of others . Put on your thinking caps and grab an abacus , here are the numbers that could put Romney in the White House .

Conservatives outnumber liberals 2 to 1 -LRB- 40 % to 21 % -RRB- .

Rage against Obama has the GOP ready to walk over red hot coals to cast a ballot . A mainstay of Gallup 's measure for determining who is likely to vote -- whether survey respondents are thinking a lot about the election -- shows not only that Republicans are more attentive than Democrats by 13 points but also more fired up than in recent presidential elections .

To make sure they harvest the Ryan enthusiasts , the Romney campaign appears to be assembling an impressive operation to turn out the vote and to aggressively compete with the Obama team for the early vote .

What makes the Romney mobilization particularly threatening to Obama is that it targets his biggest challenge -- polls consistently show him ahead but there are ominous signs that a decisive group of those supporters wo n't actually cast a ballot .

Even with Obama 's pro-immigration shift and the growing number of Latinos in competitive states , their actual turnout may flag from their record numbers in 2008 . Less than half of Hispanics eligible to vote are registering and only 64 % of Hispanics say they will definitely vote as compared to their 77 % response in 2008 and the national average of 78 % today .

Ditto on youth . The percentage of voters 18 to 29 who say they will definitely vote in November -LRB- 58 % -RRB- is currently running 20 points or more behind the national average today -LRB- 78 % -RRB- or the youth turnout in 2008 -LRB- 78 % -RRB- or 2004 -LRB- 81 % -RRB- .

Blue collar voters -- never drawn to Obama -LRB- think Hillary Clinton in 2008 Democratic primaries -RRB- -- may desert him in numbers that approach the `` Reagan Democrat '' defections in 1980 . This possible weakness in the Democratic coalition coincides with a bit more slippage among Obama 's 2008 supporters -LRB- 9 % -RRB- than among McCain voters who wo n't vote GOP in November -LRB- 5 % -RRB- .

Bottom line : By picking the bona fide conservative Ryan , the Republican base is likely to deliver a rapturous response , which may allow Romney to succeed in exploiting Obama 's greatest weakness at this point .

Before you conclude this is far-fetched , think back to Karl Rove 's strategy in 2004 to move right with strident social conservatism on abortion and same-sex marriage , steep tax cuts and hawkish policies in Afghanistan and Iraq . Embracing the base and scorning the rush to the middle cost George W. Bush the independent vote . But Bush also supercharged conservatives and Republicans , who turned out in droves . Refuting the conventional wisdom that Democrats do best in high-turnout elections , it was Bush who most benefited from the 16 % jump in the total vote .

But -- there 's always a but .

Even as Ryan fires up conservatives , he may also mobilize votes for Obama -- including senior citizens who reside in key swing states like Florida . Alarmed by his draconian proposals to remake Medicare , they may boost their support of Obama .

Another potential risk : A good number of voters may be primed to punish the incumbent for poor economic times . Pluralities of Ohio and Florida independents report that Obama 's re-election would hurt their personal financial situation . But the coming hullabaloo over Ryan 's budget proposals may distract the economically pained from punishing Obama .

All in all , Romney has a tough battle ahead -- even stringent counts of Electoral College votes based on polls show Obama within striking distance of winning . But using Ryan to ignite the Republican base is probably Romney 's most plausible path to prevailing . And , it may produce a campaign focused a bit more on policy than on birth certificates , service records and the other side issues of recent elections . Strap in , folks , 2012 may be much more interesting and close than we 'd imagined .

The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Lawrence R. Jacobs .

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Lawrence Jacobs : Mitt Romney was shrewd in picking Paul Ryan as his running mate

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Jacobs : Ryan can supercharge conservatives , who outnumber liberals 2 to 1

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He says there are signs that Obama supporters wo n't actually cast a ballot

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Jacobs : Using Ryan to ignite the GOP base is probably Romney 's best chance of prevailing